We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

In this episode, Clay explores the book Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, a guide to making better decisions under uncertainty. Drawing from her career as a professional poker player, Annie shares how to separate decision quality from outcomes and avoid the trap of “resulting.” Clay also discusses how our brains are wired for certainty, why embracing probabilistic thinking leads to better outcomes, and the value of building a truth-seeking support system. Additionally, he uncovers tools like backcasting, premortems, and kill criteria to improve long-term decision-making as investors. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 01:36 - What it means to “think in bets” and how poker can sharpen decision-making. 05:57 - The concept of “resulting” and how it distorts our ability to evaluate decisions. 08:17 - Why good decisions can still lead to bad outcomes—and vice versa. 09:41 - The role of System 1 vs. System 2 thinking in making better choices. 10:44 - How investing parallels poker with incomplete informatio