Jsedirect With Simon Brown

Simon Shares I have closed my Nasdaq long position. Still long FTSE100. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) trading update. Looks a little better than I expected. MTN (JSE code: MTN) more Nigerian woes. Reports that Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) may be selling David Jones. Elon Musk buys 9.2% of Twitter (NYSE code: TWTR). Moodys upgrades sovereign and banks from negative to stable. Deutsche Bank says: US recession in 2023 and stocks to fall 20% by summer 2023 * I hold ungeared positions. The Rouble is almost back at pre-war levels against the US$. 20% interest rates, capital controls, no foreign selling on the Moscow Exchange, selling oil & gas in Roubles (maybe), reports of paying interest on debt with Roubles and of course traders in for a buck.  

All about investing on the JSE with Simon Brown. Every Thursday.

Simon Shares Just One Lap is 11 years old :) FOMC, as expected. Local MPC tomorrow. Nasdaq, time to buy? Also FTSE100. Both a technical buy, not taking a view on the fundamentals.   Brent almost back at US$120. China opened up already, well Foxcon at least. Tencent results, flat-lining. The end of an era! So says Tencent as revenue grows in single digits, the lowest quarterly number since listing back in 2004. Tencent’s declaration is resignation that any expansion will be cautious and controlled. Prosus down 8.2%, Naspers down 8.4%. Prices still look vulnerable — David Shapiro (@davidshapiro61) March 23, 2022   Thungela Resources (JSE code: TGA) results and 1800c dividend. "developments in terms of new thermal coal projects which have been hampered by financing opportunities, given ESG pressures on carbon fuels" * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares Big banks now all have released results, mostly good albeit off low base. Covid cases in China surge, new lockdowns. Hello, more supply chain mess. People asking if I updated my view on Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE). Nope, volatility likely helping the revenue, but I need new data (results) first. Commodities weak, brent oil now in a technical bear market. China makes peace with tech Prosus (JSE code: PRX) and Naspers (JSE code: NPN) now flying (+20% n Wednesday). Discount still +50%. Reports of WeChat being hit with a massive fine for money laundering?money laundering China's state council has in one move just: *Pledged to keep capital markets stable *Vowed to support overseas stock listings *Said dialogue with US re ADRs is 'good' *Promised to handle risks for property developers *Clarified regulation of Big Tech will end 'soon' *BOOM pic.twitter.com/xHYgcbchCo — Sofia Horta e Costa (@SofiaHCBBG) March 16, 2022   * I hold ungeared positions.  

Simon Shares Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) results, it's all about innovation. Strong un International* (JSE code: SUI) update. War in Europe, commodities still the story. Very volatile, that's expected. But I expect more upside and I am happy to hold. Upcoming events; 17 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Geopolitics, inflation and markets Prosus (JSE code PRX) / Naspers (JSE code: NPN) / Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) Tencent has been under pressure Naspers and Prosus have been hit even harder Live Prosus discount to net asset value (NAV) is now some 55% after hitting 60%.  VK (old mail.ru) has been written down to zero. Generally unlisted is worth a lot less than stated? Buy / Sell / Hold? VIE structure China has not taken sides in the war, so far Tax on profits if they sell Tencent More Chinese crackdowns? Prosus has been wasting money from the sale of 2% stake in Tencent? Buying back shares Buying Delivery Hero (Frankfurt code: DHER) * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares City Lodge* (JSE code: CLH) results, fair valuation around 800c? BHP Group* (JSE code: BHG) will see a significant reduction in its weighting in Top40 and Resi10 indices. PSG (JSE code: PSG) exiting the JSE. Wilson Bayly Holmes (JSE code: WBO) has lost investor confidence. Murray & Roberts* (JSE code: MUR) results. HEPS at 29c a little light, but back in profit. War in Europe Inflation is the biggest economic issue. Energy, PGMs and agriculture. Will central banks stick to their rate rising trend? People want to buy the Russian ETF, why? Even if peace happens today, sanctions will be in place for some time to come. Buy Satrix Resi10 ETF* (JSE code: STXRES). The Oil ETN (JSE code: SBOIL). Local stocks impacted Barloworld (JSE code: BAW) about 20% of revenue. Mondi (JSE code: MND) about 12% of revenue. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 07 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Geopolitics, inflation and markets

Wednesday was budget day and our tax experts, AJM Tax, hosted a live panel discussion covering the budget; highlights and low lights. We've included the recording for this week's episode. The panellists were; Divan Botha – moderator Dr Albertus Marais ~ Director at AJM Tax Laila Razack ~ CFO of Equites Property Fund Simon Brown ~ Founder Just One Lap and host MoneywebNOW

Simon Shares Strong Nedbank (JSE code NED) trading update. If you held Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) when it all went wrong in 2017 you have until 15 May to submit a claim. Oceana (JSE code: OCE), now the CEO quits? * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 22 April ~ Introducing the CoreShares Total World ETF 06 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Finding income in JSE listings What's down with Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE), owners of EasyEquities? After a high of 349c a month ago it's now 261c. Firstly it's more sellers than buyers. The hype of the pandemic trading is fading and easy returns are fading. So less trading, slower new accounts (albeit reports that they still have great new account rates). Vacation is wild. For the year ending August 2021 737k active accounts (up 45.7%). Each account makes R69 profit. But as accounts age profits per account increase. What can we expect to see for the year ending August 2022? (NOTE, the interim results to end February will be out early April). 1million accounts?

Simon Shares Great Sappi (JSE code: SAP) results. Strong Hudaco (JSE code: HDC) results. Top40 is trading at all-time highs, as is Resi10 and MidCap is almost there. Kastle back to work barometer shows office attendance in the US is still not back to levels from before the most recent pandemic wave and around 33% (on average) of pre-pandemic levels. Back in November, the average was just over 38%. IPO process explained. Ashburton ETFs have moved over to FNB. Meta Platforms (Nasdaq code: FB); Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp Down 25% on the day of the results. Fell further and now off 43% from September 2021 highs and back at May 2020 levels. Market cap below US$600billion, that happens to be the number House legislators picked as the threshold for a “covered platform” in a package of competition bills aimed at Big Tech. Active users declined $10billion lost revenue due to new iOS privacy rules $10billion on metaverse. Regulatory issues. Meta threatens to shut down Facebook and Instagram in Europe over prop

Simon Shares PGMs are on the move, most notably palladium and rhodium. But the miners are not. Combined Motor Holdings* (JSE code: CMH) strong trading update. MTN (JSE code: MTN) vs. Vodacom (JSE code: VOD) updates. Who's winning? Strong Astral (JSE code: ARL) update, but for the half ending March - so off low base. Ascendis (JSE code: ASC) looking to sell three businesses, but that won't leave much behind. OPEC+ agrees to a 400k barrel/day increase from March, this was the initial plan from last year. The local CPI basket is changing. Satrix is listing an India ETF, currently in IPO. The local prime interest rate increased 0.25% last week. This adds R152 per R1million of a bond. Not a lot, but this is the second one already and we have many more coming. The ARK Innovation ETF (NYSE code: ARKK) has had a tough year and at a point, in January, it was behind the Nasdaq over the life of the fund and it is trailing the Nasdaq over one and three years. That all said, they publish all their research and released t

Simon Shares PGMs are on the move, most notably palladium and rhodium. Oil also still moving, remember the ETN for that. Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) update shows the pandemic home improvement boom is over. ArcelorMittal South Africa (JSE code: ACL) update sees them into profit and on a PE of under 2x. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) settlement approved, but still lots of debt. Markets are spooked Lots to be spooked by; FOMC, it's all happening in March Asset purchases are also to end in March, but what of the US$9trillion of bonds the Fed holds? Valuations are high. Rates are rising. Inflation is at decade highs. Value winning over growth for the first time in an age. Upcoming events; 09 February ~ Wealth Creation through Trading and Investing with ThinkMarkets

Simon Shares BHP Group* (JSE code: BHP) is unifying its dual-listed company (DLC) corporate structure effective close 28 January. This will count as a CGT event for shareholders who will have been deemed to have sold their shares and bought the new ones. Microsoft (Nasdaq code: MSFT) is buying Activision-Blizzard for $69 billion, but who's the largest gaming company in the world? Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700). German 10-year back above 0%. [caption id="attachment_31941" align="aligncenter" width="888"] German 10-year yield[/caption] Oil at 7-year highs. There's an ETN for that. * I hold ungeared positions.

Now for the tenth year in a row, we kick off the new year with a predictions show. Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown put their heads on the block with three wild and woolly predictions for the markets for 2022 followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead. Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year’s predictions and you’ll find the 2021 predictions show here.

Holiday show Back in 2010 the world watched as Greece plunged further and further into a debt crisis with many expecting the EU to not survive. But Angela Merkel saved Greece and the day. [caption id="attachment_31826" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Greek 10Y bond rates[/caption] Greek debt to GDP (%) source: tradingeconomics.com

On the 20th September 2021 Chinese property developer missed interest payments on some US$300billion of debt and this spooked markets into a selloff. But three months later nobody cares. What's the background sorry and why does nobody care?

After clogging up the Suez Canal for six days back in March 2021 and halting much of the worlds shipping trade, what happened to Ever Given?

Offshore / Strong year of returns globally, CAC40 (France) top index / US inflation, not transitory / US unemployment looking decent / China crackdown / Commodities mostly a soft year, the exception is oil / Supply chain chaos Local / Good year for local markets / Delisitng galore / GDP / Rand

Simon has a look back at the winners and losers from the JSE for 2021, year-to-date returns. There certainly are some losers, but mostly it is about winners as the Top40 did 21.5% so far and the top major global index was the Cac40 which returned 29.9%. Find the top ETFs here.

Offshore / US Labor Nov Nonfarm Payrolls +210K; Consensus +573K, unemployment improved to 4.2%. Fed's target for 'maximum employment' is for unemployment rate of 4.5%. / Didi leaving NYSE / Google will no longer require workers to return to the office on Jan. 10, delaying the return indefinitely. / Dorsey leaves Twitter / OPEC+ agrees to January production hikes Local / Implats comes for RBPlats / Capital Appreciation results / Tharisa results / Bidcorp updates / Murray & Roberts update

Simon Shares Bidcorp (JSE code: BID). Strong update, they're coming out of this pandemic much stronger. Aspen (JSE code: APN) announces manufacturing deal with Johnson & Johnson (NYSE code: JNJ). Implats (JSE code: IMP) wants RBPlats (JSE code: RBP), sorry Northam Platinum (JSE code NPH). Powell, Fed chair, says inflation is not transitory. Oil under severe pressure, OPEC+ meeting was pushed back to Wednesday. New variant, I bought City Lodge* (JSE code: CLH) and Sun International* (JSE code: SUI) on Friday. I did buy somme leisure on Friday, CLH at 400c and SUI at 2100c .. will see shortly if that was a good idea or not ..#JSE https://t.co/aHKZOIxLbu — Simon Brown (@SimonPB) November 29, 2021   * I hold ungeared positions.