Threading The Needle

In this episode of the E-Commerce Playbook, Taylor Holiday and Richard Gaffin dig into the Measurement Roadmap—CTC’s framework for deciding what to test, when to test it, and why it matters. They unpack why incrementality testing is so crucial, the massive swings it can reveal in platform reporting, and how brands can use repeated tests to progressively “shrink the error bars” around decision-making.From Meta’s 20% under-reporting benchmark to surprising Amazon lift results, Taylor shares concrete examples of how measurement gaps can change behavior, creative strategy, and even channel prioritization. The conversation highlights a hard but liberating truth: marketers don’t need perfect certainty—they need enough clarity to make confident decisions anchored in contribution margin.Show Notes:Ready to stop gambling on unreliable contractors? Check out AllStars and Book Your Strategy Call: https://www.hireallstars.com/contactExplore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag i

Most brands rush into new ad platforms before they’re ready. In this episode, Richard and Tony break down why channel expansion is less about “good or bad” and more about timing and fuel.They revisit the core sequence—master Meta, then Google—before adding channels like Snapchat, TikTok, YouTube, or Pinterest. And they go deep on why CTC is bullish on AppLovin, the mobile gaming ad platform that’s driving genuinely incremental growth for select brands.You’ll learn:The prerequisites for channel expansion (creative system + incrementality measurement)How AppLovin differs from Meta & Google—and why it’s working nowThe scale opportunity CTC sees as the platform opens up Oct 1Why CTC approaches channels as investments, not experimentsIf you’ve nailed your core channels and want to know when (and how) to expand, this episode is your playbook.Show Notes:Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demoExplore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.comThe Eco

As Q4 approaches, creative demand becomes one of the biggest challenges for brands looking to scale efficiently. In this episode, Richard Gaffin (Director of Digital Product Strategy at CTC) sits down with Luke Austin (VP of E-Commerce Strategy) to unpack CTC’s new Creative Demand Model—a framework that quantifies exactly how much creative output brands need in order to hit their revenue and spend goals.They walk through real examples from CTC’s dataset, breaking down what separates the highest creative scores from the lowest, and why top brands are still producing hundreds of ads each month to sustain growth. You’ll learn:The five key metrics behind the Creative Demand Score (zero spend rate, ad concentration, ROAS degradation, spend degradation, and evergreen share).How creative volume directly ties into forecasting models like spend and MER.Why troubleshooting CTR or hook rate in isolation often misses the bigger picture.Practical recommendations for balancing evergreen content, rapid testing, and scaling

In this week’s episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Luke Austin (VP of Ecommerce Strategy at CTC) sits down with Mike McVerry, SVP of Ecommerce & International Sales at Urban Armor Gear (UAG) to unpack how the brand unlocked 40% YoY revenue growth and 43% contribution margin growth in 2025 … despite a shrinking market.Together, they break down:- Why “spend more to grow more” wasn’t working for UAG- How the Profit System bridged the gap between finance and marketing- The role of contribution margin in setting smarter media budgets- Scaling creative volume nearly 4x year over year- How to break through a “glass ceiling” of growth with financial clarity- Lessons on inventory, marketing calendars, and collaboration that fueled profitabilityThis is a real-world case study in building sustainable DTC growth by aligning finance, marketing, and creative execution.Show Notes:Ready to solve your influencer strategy?Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.comExplore the Prophit System: https://www.prop

In this special episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Luke Austin takes the reins and brings in two of CTC’s top-performing growth strategists—Lacie Geary and Brian Sakansky—for a deep dive into what it takes to build and execute a forecast with precision.You’ll get a rare look under the hood at CTC’s Profit System, including how we:Set and execute daily client-level forecasts for revenue, spend, and contribution marginThink about tradeoffs between efficiency vs. volumeUse planning tools like the Spend aMER Model, Day-of-Week Effect, and Creative Demand ModelTrack forecast accuracy by strategist, with Lacie and Brian leading the wayIdentify and respond to signals in real-time that influence media allocationUse product-level reporting to guide decisions at the SKU and creative levelYou’ll hear specific client examples from the home goods and apparel space, plus commentary on how inventory, product mix, and creator content factor into hitting (and sometimes beating) forecasted targets.Show Notes:Ready to e

When should you really be spending more? Which days of the week drive the most revenue—for your brand?In this episode, Richard is joined by Luke Austin (VP of Growth at Common Thread Collective) to walk through real client data and uncover just how different day-of-week and month-over-month effects can be across brands, even within the same vertical.You’ll learn:Why blindly scaling spend in Q4 might be a mistakeHow day-of-week effects can swing revenue potential by over 30%Why trying to “fix” bad days isn’t always worth itWhat most brands miss when planning their BFCM budgetHow to think like a portfolio manager when allocating ad spendWhether you’re a home goods brand, fitness apparel company, or in personal care, Luke shows how the Spend <> aMER model can give you a quantifiable edge in media buying and forecasting.Plus, learn why Fridays might be gold—or garbage—depending on your category.Show Notes:Ready to earn trust, convert shoppers, and inspire customer loyalty? Check out Yotpo: https://www.yotpo

In this episode of The Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday dig deeper into the Spending Power Model—breaking down why the next dollar you spend doesn’t always produce the same return.They explore concepts like the marginal frontier (the moment your next dollar becomes unprofitable), spending power, and how to balance short-term profitability with long-term growth. Taylor shows how to evaluate whether to optimize for revenue, contribution margin, or lifetime contribution—and why these decisions always tie back to your financial goals.You’ll learn:What the “marginal frontier” really means for your ad spendWhy not all dollars in create the same dollars outHow to use spending power as a scale metric for your brandThe tradeoffs between maximizing revenue vs. profitabilityHow this framework helps align boardroom strategy with media buying decisionsShow Notes:Ready to earn trust, convert shoppers, and inspire customer loyalty? Check out Yotpo: https://www.yotpo.com/?utm_source=Com...Explore

In place of this week's Tuesday ECPP episode, we're featuring CTC's newest podcast: The DTC Hotline.In this week’s episode of The DTC Hotline, Richard Gaffin is joined once again by Tony “The Chopper” Chopp (VP of Paid Media) and Luke “The Weatherman” Austin (VP of eCommerce Strategy) to field real questions from operators and listeners—offering hot takes, cold truths, and unfiltered answers.They tackle:- What to do when your historically strong Meta campaign suddenly stops working- The “3 Ps” framework—payment, policy, pixel—when diagnosing sharp performance drops- How to push back when brand standards block creative diversity- Whether top-of-funnel campaigns (like add-to-cart optimization) really work- The products and niches they’d actually pursue—or avoid—if starting an eComm brand todayThis is where your eCommerce questions get answered—practical, direct, and straight from the operators’ desk.Call or text us your question: 866-DTC-2263Ready to earn trust, convert shoppers, and inspire custome

In this episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday dive deep into the practical use cases of Spend & aMER forecasting models—powerful tools that help brands set budgets with clarity, not guesswork.Taylor walks through real examples, showing how these models adjust for changing costs (like tariffs) and how gross margin shifts ripple through your entire P&L, media plan, and growth strategy. They also unpack why Black Friday/Cyber Monday cohorts often underperform long-term, and how understanding lifetime value can help you spend smarter, not harder.You’ll learn:• Why changing gross margins completely alter your revenue potential• How to reset budgets when tariffs or duties impact COGS• The surprising long-term weakness of Black Friday customer cohorts• How to model incremental spend and know when every new dollar turns negative• Why forecasting isn’t about prediction—it’s about clarity and actionShow Notes:- Ready to stop gambling on unreliable contractors?Check out All

In this episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday unpack the critical connection between forecasting models and creative production. Forecasting isn’t just about predicting numbers … it’s about building a marketing and creative plan that can actually deliver them.Taylor explains why most forecasts fail: brands treat them like predictions instead of action plans. The team breaks down how to bridge that gap by tying financial models to the marketing calendar, identifying offer opportunities, and planning campaigns with excess creative capacity so you’re never scrambling when results fall short.You’ll learn:- Why every forecast depends on your creative pipeline- How to identify bottlenecks that kill forecasting accuracy- The role of growth strategists vs. creative strategists in building clarity- Why true diversity in creative comes from multiple production sources, not one overworked designer- How UGC and creator networks unlock scale and resilienceThe conversation closes with

In this episode of The Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday unpack why forecasting isn’t just about models—it’s about execution. They explore how the best brands combine data, marketing calendars, and disciplined ownership to create forecasts that actually hold up in the real world.Drawing from billions in client data, Taylor explains why finance-driven forecasts often fall short—and how integrating qualitative planning and real-time execution makes all the difference. Together, they lay out the framework that separates accurate, actionable forecasts from guesswork.You’ll learn:• Why finance-only forecasting fails in eCommerce• The three-part framework for accurate forecasting (Quantitative, Qualitative, Execution)• How to tie marketing calendars directly to financial models• Tactical steps to make your forecasts more reliable before Q4Show Notes:Ready to start texting smarter? Visit ⁠https://www.postscript.io⁠Explore the Prophit System: ⁠https://www.prophitsystem.com⁠The Ecommerce Pl

In this episode of The Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday break down why so many e-commerce leaders rely on guesswork and ambition instead of reality—and how forecasting models like Spend & aMER can change that.Taylor compares these models to a DEXA scan: a clear, data-driven look at your business health. Together, they explain how accurate forecasting systems help you diagnose overspending or underspending, anticipate seasonal changes, and build a roadmap to profitable growth.You’ll learn:- Why most e-commerce budgets are based on wishful thinking- How Spend & aMER models anchor you in reality- The key forecasting tools (Spend, Retention, Event Effect) every brand needs- How to prepare smarter for Q4 and beyondShow Notes:- Ready to start texting smarter?Visit https://www.postscript.io- Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world

In this week’s episode of The DTC Hotline, Richard Gaffin is joined once again by Tony “The Chopper” Chopp (VP of Paid Media) and Luke “The Weatherman” Austin (VP of eCommerce Strategy) to take real questions from eComm operators and Admission members—no fluff, just clear, hard-earned answers.They tackle:• What to do when “nothing works” on Meta (and why that diagnosis is often wrong)• How to spot the real business problem hiding behind poor ad performance• Why TikTok creative might crush while Meta flops—and how to close the gap• When to expand into secondary channels like Pinterest or Snapchat (and when not to)• The truth about CPMs—and why chasing lower costs can lead you astray• How to pitch cost caps to your boss so they actually say yes• Why profitable scaling means solving business problems, not just account problemsThis is where your DTC questions get answered in real time.Call or text us: 866-DTC-2263Interested in Admission? Learn more at https://www.youradmission.co/Email: podcast@commonthreadco.com

In this episode of the E-Commerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin is joined by Luke Austin (VP of E-Commerce Strategy at CTC) and Steve Rekuc (Director of Data) to unpack one of CTC’s most powerful forecasting tools: the Spend & aMER Model.This model reveals whether your brand is overspending past the point of profitability—or underspending and leaving growth on the table. By layering in 40+ predictive models, seasonality, and LTV impacts, it provides the clearest roadmap to profitable growth we’ve ever built.You’ll learn:- Why most 8–9 figure brands are shocked when they see their true efficiency curve- How to quantify the real tradeoff between cutting spend and growing top-line revenue- The difference between optimizing for contribution margin today vs. maximizing lifetime margin tomorrow- Why “spending power” is unique to every brand—and how to know yoursGet your FREE mystery shopping report from Stord—compare your CX against two competitors:https://stord.link/mysteryExplore the Prophit System: https:

Get an exclusive look behind the curtain with our VP of Strategy, Luke, as he breaks down how CTC is transforming profit-driven growth through clarity, measurement, and scalable systems. Discover how our incrementality tool, daily forecasting workflows, and creative growth frameworks come together in the “prism”—our metaphor for the integrated decision-making engine that fuels brand success.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:- How geo‑based incrementality tests are lowering ad spend risk and increasing clarity- Why Meta, Google Brand, and Google Non‑Brand all perform differently—and how we prioritize ad dollars accordingly- How we’ve scaled effective channels like YouTube, TikTok, Snapchat, and Pinterest—thanks to high-confidence data and targeted ad credits- The three core “Units of Growth” we use to influence profitable expansionShow Notes:Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at getsaral.comExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us

In the debut of The DTC Hotline, Richard Gaffin is joined by Tony “The Chopper” Chopp (VP of Paid Media) and Luke “The Weatherman” Austin (VP of eCommerce Strategy) to take real questions from eComm operators and Admission members—no fluff, just unfiltered answers.They tackle:• Why your Meta cost caps aren’t spending (and what to do about it)• How much creative is really “a lot” in today’s ad environment• The best tools for competitor research and ad spying• What to do when LTV is low and repeat purchases are rare• When to launch a new campaign vs. just adding creatives• Why AI is more valuable for strategy than production• The truth about when (or if) eCommerce is “getting better”Call, text, or listen in—this is where your DTC questions get answered in real time.Interested in Admission?Learn more at https://www.youradmission.co/Call or text us: 866-DTC-2263Email: podcast@commonthreadco.comExplore the Prophit System: https://prophitsystem.com

As brands approach the $1M–$10M revenue range, they often find themselves stuck—still hustling, but with slower growth and rising costs. That’s where CTC’s Global Accelerator comes in. In this episode, Richard Gaffin is joined by Joy Sharma and Jan Almuni to share the blueprint for how seven-figure brands break through to eight.They reveal the step-by-step playbook used across dozens of brands in the Accelerator program—and why the secret to scaling isn’t one big move, but the right next move at the right time.You’ll learn:- Why creative volume is a non-negotiable—and how to build it cost-effectively- How the “two-and-two” marketing calendar framework drives consistent growth- What landing page testing can teach you about offers, personas, and real incrementality- Why retention isn’t a backend problem—it’s baked into every step of the growth journeyShow Notes:Get your FREE mystery shopping report from Stord—compare your CX against two competitors:https://stord.link/mysteryExplore the Prophit System: https://p

In this episode of the E-Commerce Playbook Podcast, Taylor Holiday and Richard Gaffin unpack the surprising success of last week’s episode—and explore what it reveals about content that actually resonates.What about the convo with Taylor and Andrew led to such a positive response?Turns out, the answer has less to do with tactics—and everything to do with time, unique perspective, and story.If you’re trying to build content that lasts (not just goes viral), this one’s for you.Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm.Book your strategy demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demo

After months of speculation, testing, and internal debate, CTC put Meta’s new Incremental Attribution Tool to the test—three times.In this episode, Richard Gaffin sits down with VP of Paid Media Tony Chopp to break down what really happened across those tests, including a final geo holdout study using actual Shopify revenue. The result? You’ll learn:- What CTC’s 3 incrementality tests revealed about Meta’s new attribution tool- Why Meta’s results may be overstating impact—especially on new customer acquisition- How to run a high-fidelity geo holdout test with real revenue data- Why “cautiously curious” is the right mindset for adopting new attribution toolsShow Notes:Want to see how real customers experience your brand across channels?Request your FREE Mystery Shopper report from our sponsor, Stord: https://stord.link/mysteryExplore the Prophit System: https://prophitsystem.comHave a question for the podcast?Email us: podcast@commonthreadco.com

In this episode of The Random Show, Taylor Holiday and Andrew Faris sit down for a moment of focus—because something big just happened.Common Thread Collective has a new growth partner. Taylor breaks down what the deal really means, why it isn’t a retirement plan, and how private equity views agencies differently than eComm brands.• Why service businesses generate more cash (and get better multiples)• How CTC nearly collapsed—and what saved it• The real reason agency owners burn out (and how to avoid it)This is a must-watch.Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demoExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm